william bishop

Capacity Block Watch · issue 5 · 2026-10-26 · data as of 2026-10-26

Paying more to wait longer.

Three weeks after the October update, the higher price hasn't bought anyone a shorter wait. H100 wasn't open on a single day for the second week in a row, and the H200 p5e joined the shortage. Blackwell still has room. AWS has now said when the next update is: January 2027.

Open means bookable within three days. Queue means obtainable, you wait. Sold out means no offer before the end of AWS's eight-week booking horizon.

1. H100: open on no day, two weeks running

Issue 4 said H100 had slid for a third week. It kept going. The 8-GPU H100 was open on 33% of days in the week of September 22, then 17%, 7%, and 0% for each of the last two weeks. It was sold out on 16% of days this week, the most the series has recorded for this chip. Until now it had been a long queue, not a wall.

The typical wait, when it could be had at all, was 25 days, against 5 in late September. That's 25 days at $5.97 an hour, where in September it was 5 days at $5.19.

The losses were outside the US. London's H100 went sold out at 1, 7 and 28 days. São Paulo, same-day in issue 3, went sold out at 7 and 28 days. US regions were never open and never sold out: every day was a queue, with a typical wait of 28 days.

The single-GPU H100 (p5.4xlarge) is still the easier book: open on 20% of days and never sold out. On days when both were offered in the same region, the eight-GPU block had the later start 41 times out of 55, about the same ratio as issue 4.

2. One price, and a 50-day spread

Issue 4 argued that with one price in every region, the only thing left to choose a region on is when you can start. This week that choice was worth up to 50 days, the median gap between the fastest and slowest region for a 7-day H100 block.

On October 26, Tokyo could start one in 4 days. São Paulo had nothing in the eight-week window. Tokyo was also the fastest region for H100 in issue 4, at 9 days. It's the same price as N. Virginia, where the wait that day was 23 days.

one price. h100: 4 days in tokyo, sold out in são pauloearliest start, fastest vs slowest region, oct 26014284256days until the block can starth100 (p5.48xl)ap-northeast-1sa-east-1median gap 50 dh200 (p5e)sa-east-1ap-southeast-2median gap 41 dh100 x1 (p5.4xl)sa-east-1us-east-1median gap 36 dh200 (p5en)us-west-2us-west-1median gap 34 da100 40gb (p4d)us-west-2us-east-1median gap 32 db200 (p6-b200)ap-south-1eu-north-1median gap 19 db300 (p6-b300)ap-northeast-2us-west-2median gap 8 da100 80gb (p4de)us-west-2us-east-1median gap 2 dfastest regionslowest regioncapacity block watch · own sampling · 2026-10-20 to 2026-10-26 (7 days)
Figure 1: earliest start on October 26, fastest against slowest region, per instance type.

This is the change the update made that a budget line won't show. In September, going abroad meant trading a longer wait for a 9% discount. Now there's no discount, and some regions abroad are fast and some are closed. It's worth checking every region, not just the ones you know.

3. The other H200 joined the shortage

In issue 4 the H200 p5e "held at its usual third" of days sold out. The week after, it was 45%. This week, 56%, and it wasn't open on any day. London's 7- and 28-day p5e blocks went from about 26 days out to 55.

The p5en, until now the scarcer of the two, eased a little: 50% sold out, down from 57% in issue 4 and 66% in late September. Oregon's 7-day block went from 53 days out to about one, the largest move of the week. N. California's p5en went the other way, sold out at 1, 7 and 28 days.

both h200s sold out half the week. blackwell, not once.share of days each instance type was open, queued or sold out, 7-day blocksopenqueuesold outtrainium (trn1)100%n=7h200 (p5e)40%60%n=35h200 (p5en)45%50%n=56a100 80gb (p4de)57%43%n=14h100 (p5.48xl)84%16%n=70b200 (p6-b200)54%46%n=35h100 x1 (p5.4xl)20%80%n=56a100 40gb (p4d)100%n=21b300 (p6-b300)64%36%n=14capacity block watch · own sampling · 2026-10-20 to 2026-10-26 (7 days)
Figure 2: share of days each instance type was open, queued or sold out, 7-day blocks, October 20 to 26.

Read together, both H200s are now sold out about half the time. There's no longer an easy H200.

4. Blackwell still has room

B200 was open on 54% of days and B300 on 64%, and neither was sold out on any day. The typical wait was under three days for B200 and under one for B300. Ohio's 28-day B200 went from 44 days out to 2.

Issue 4's trade-off still stands: B200 at $14.21 per accelerator-hour against $7.89 for H200 p5en and $5.97 for H100. If you have to start this month, Blackwell is the one most likely to say yes.

5. The rush ended with the old price

Issue 4 left a question open: if open blocks had been going fast because buyers were booking ahead of the price, the pace should ease once the price moved. It did. In the two weeks before October 7, 58% and then 55% of open blocks were still open five days later. The week of the update, 59%. The two weeks since, 76% and then 65%, back toward the 75% to 80% of earlier weeks.

Sold out also stopped being quite so final: 5% of sold-out blocks had an offer the next day and 12% within three, against 4% and 9% in issue 4. I still can't see who books, so this is a pattern, not proof. It's a strong one: the fastest turnover the series has seen came in the weeks before a known price increase, and stopped when the increase arrived.

Before January

  1. The next update is scheduled for January 2027. AWS's pricing page now says so. All three updates this year went up.
  2. The rate is set when you buy. Blocks can start up to eight weeks out, so a block bought in late December can run into late February at December's rate.
  3. Watch December. If the September rush was about the price, open blocks should start going faster again as January gets close. Decide early.
  4. Check every region. With one price, the fastest region is just the fastest region, and it changes. Tokyo led for H100 in both October issues. São Paulo, the fastest in issue 3, is now closed.
  5. For H100, look at single-GPU blocks first. They were open when the 8-GPU H100 wasn't, two weeks running.

This week, October 20 to 26

Of 139 combinations: 25 open, 82 queued, 32 sold out. 26 changed state from the week before. No prices changed. Trainium has not been offered in any region since August 11, eleven weeks now.

Worse: London H100 1-, 7- and 28-day, into sold out. São Paulo H100 7- and 28-day, into sold out. N. California H200 (p5en) 1-, 7- and 28-day, into sold out. London H200 (p5e) 7- and 28-day, 26 days out to 55. Stockholm B200 7-day, 1 day to 19.

Better: Oregon H200 (p5en) 7-day, 53 days to 1. Ohio B200 28-day, 44 days to 2. Oregon B300 28-day, sold out to 8 days. N. Virginia B300 1- and 7-day, into open.

About the data

A personal collection of AWS Capacity Block offerings across all 11 regions that sell them, sampled up to every 15 minutes. This issue covers October 20 to 26, with week-on-week comparisons back to September 22. The price check runs through October 28. API errors and throttles are excluded and never counted as absent capacity. All figures are single-instance offers; larger block sizes are not covered. The January 2027 date is from AWS's Capacity Blocks pricing page.

Everything above is aggregate. The per-combination history behind it, and reopen alerts, are held back.

Need one instance, one region, one block length? Pick the three in the box below, the way you would in the console, and it comes to me. I'll reply with that combination's history since July and where it stands today. (Or email williambishop.cs@gmail.com with the three.) If your team plans training runs against Capacity Blocks, I'd like to compare notes on how you do it.

Next issue: week of October 27 to November 2.

look up one combination

pick the instance, region and block length the way you would in the console, and leave an email. nothing is shown here on purpose; it comes to me, and i reply with that combination's history since july and where it stands today.